I confess I never thought I'd be here. I've been circling the perimeter of Welding Magazine for nearly two decades, never making the approach. I've researched and reported on the evolution of production and process technologies in the primary metals, metal casting, forging, and heat treating markets, and as a magazine editor I've watched the maturation of the global marketplace, and the choices and consequences it presents to all industrial organizations.

Yet, welding remains new to me. I hope that in the coming issues that will help me to present fresh insights on the subjects you know so well. My predecessor, Bruce Vernyi, built an effective and well respected franchise we intend to maintain, and to improve.

We're confident that the changes we're making will improve our ability to deliver a reliable and effective magazine to you, but we're not immune to what's going on in the world, in our business, and in yours.

A soft landing? A smooth transition? These are catchphrases businesses use to blunt the impact of bad news. And yet, the news remains bad, and no one is entirely persuaded by the artful phrases. So, as we explain our changes here at Welding Magazine, just like everyone, in order to succeed we have to be honest about the world in which we operate.

Reports indicate job losses are nearing modern-record levels. U.S. automotive assembly was down 60 percent in January, year-on-year. For February, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports economic activity among U.S. manufacturers declined for the 13th straight month, as overall U.S. economic activity fell for the fifth straight month.

“While production has slowed its rate of decline, employment continues to fall precipitously. Prices continue to decline, but price advantages are not sufficient to overcome manufacturers' apparent loss of demand,” explained ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee chairman Norbert J. Ore.

At 35.8 percent, the ISM's purchasing managers' index (PMI) was only a fraction of a percent higher in February than in January (35.6 percent.) A PMI reading below 50 percent indicates a shrinking manufacturing segment.

Primary and fabricated metal products sectors contracted last month, too. One respondent to the ISM survey claimed that “customers across the board are being very cautious about ordering any stock.”

The ISM's new-orders index fell to 33.1 percent in February, 0.1 percent below January. The production index actually rose 4.2 percent to 36.3 percent in February. Inventories declined 0.5 percent to 37 percent; and the customer inventory index fell 4.5 points to 51 percent. The ISM concludes its survey respondents are pessimistic about a 2009 recovery, according to the chairman, though he added: ”Some express hope that the stimulus package will help their industry.”

Hope cannot be quantified, and for that we should be grateful. It's harder to locate sometimes than at others, but it's always available. It's a commodity that rises and falls in relative value (in better times, we call it confidence), and we should make the most of it.

The worst way to approach a problem is to panic. The best way, and the only way, is to regain confidence, and to grow beyond the problems. Starting over, starting fresh, doesn't mean undoing or overturning the past. It means restoring confidence in ourselves and our principles, renewing our understanding of our work, and recommitting ourselves to succeed according to the standards we trust.